NFL QB Tiers Heading Into the 2024 Season

By: Zach Jonkman

The NFL regular season is 11 weeks away and doesn’t seem to be approaching any faster, so that means we should put out a 100 percent correct and totally not controversial quarterback tier list. The names within each tier are not in order, but a player within a lower tier could still be considered a better player than one in a higher tier. The tiers make it easier to categorize them. 

Tier 1: Mahomes

QB: Patrick Mahomes

This tier doesn’t need much explanation. Patrick Mahomes is easily the best quarterback in the NFL and already one of the best we have seen in the entire history of the sport. He has no weaknesses in his game and makes the difficult stuff look routine. He’s got three rings under his belt after the recent back-to-

back championships and he’s going to be chasing that three-peat in 2024. As long as Mahomes is the quarterback of the Chiefs, you can never count them out. 

Tier 2: Freaks of Nature

QBs: Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson

Whether you look at Lamar’s game-breaking speed and acceleration, or Allen’s howitzer of an arm, these two always find a way to make our jaws drop to the floor at least once during every game they play. Lamar has been a staple of the Raven’s running game for the entirety of his career and he’s been improving as a passer as well. He’s coming off his second MVP and the offense just added Derrick Henry to an already great offense. Josh Allen broke out in year three once the Bills added Stefon Diggs, but now he’s in Houston. Allen needs to prove that his game has developed past needing any sort of dominant alpha receiver (dare I say like Mahomes did after the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill a couple of years ago). If he does that, I have no problem cementing him as a top three quarterback for years to come. 

Tier 3: Extremely Talented Arms

QBs: Joe Burrow, CJ Stroud, Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford

This is where the controversy will start to come out. Not all of these guys have been winning throughout their careers, but the talent is definitely there. Burrow and Stafford can be surgical at times with their arms. Stroud, despite only his rookie season on his resume, did some great things within the pocket and out-of-structure to win games (one of which was a playoff game). Herbert has one of the strongest and most accurate arms in the entire league and would’ve won more games last year if not for the finger injury that ended his season early. These guys should all be firmly within the playoff race at the very least as wild-card candidates. If they aren’t, the team around them has failed in some way or suffered unfortunate injuries. 

Tier 4: Favorable Situations, but they Play Winning Football

QBs: Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love, Brock Purdy

These guys win games, but they can’t do it alone unlike the guys in tier 3 and above. Dak has the help of a top three receiver, Goff has the best running back duo in the league, Hurts has a great offensive line and a fantastic receiving duo, Love has an offensive/play calling master in Lafluer, and Purdy has the greatest supporting cast in football while Shannahan is calling the shots from the sideline. That doesn’t mean that these guys are incapable of winning on their own, but you do notice a solid difference when their situation is at its best, to when they lose a guy or two due to injury. 

Tier 5: Aging Vets Coming Off Achillies Injury with Something to Prove

QBs: Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins

I find it very difficult to place these guys in a specific tier because of their track records. Rodgers you can throw as high as tier two because he is one of the most cutthroat, accurate, and demoralizing quarterbacks of all time. He is a four-time MVP and a Super Bowl champion, but had a relatively average 2022 season and his 2023 season was cut short after just four snaps on the New York Jets. I want to throw Cousins in the previous tier (four) because he didn’t really “pop” until his later years in Minnesota with Jefferson, Hockenson, and Dalvin Cook helping him out. He just signed with the Falcons this offseason in what seems to be another favorable situation. He was also playing at an extremely high level before his injury last year, some of which came without Justin Jefferson too. The achilles injuries are concerning, but won’t hinder either of their games too much. Both use the pocket to their advantage and hit their targets on time and in stride for big gains. Rodgers has much more of a “playmaker” element to him because he can and has roamed out of the pocket many times to extend plays and drives, which is something Cousins lacks. Both should have bounce-back years in 2024 and will be hoping to lead their new teams to playoff success. 

Tier 6: Young, Expensive Lambos in a Trailer Park

QBs: Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray

These two have been in less than favorable situations for most of their career, but have still shown they can play some damn good football anyways. Lawrence hasn’t stuck to his “generational” tag coming out of college, but he’s got a playoff win to his name despite unfortunate circumstances around him. Last year, the Jags added Calvin Ridley to the offensive arsenal. Unfortunately for Lawrence, Ridley was quite inconsistent for the majority of the season. Kyler started his career with a bad team, then had two solid seasons in a row in 2020 and 2021 when Deandre Hopkins was in the receiver room, but has since dealt with injuries while the team around him has gotten worse. Now Lawrence has gotten a big payday to become the highest-paid QB in the league and Kyler got a shiny new toy in Marvin Harrison Jr., who is the best receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson. 

Tier 7: Middle of the Pack Risers and Fall Guys

QBs: Baker Mayfield, Deshaun Watson, Tua Tagovailoa, Geno Smith, Derek Carr, Russell Wilson 

This group for the most part have gotten extensions with their current team or are next up for an extension. Baker led the Bucs to the playoffs last year and a wild-card win. He will hope to build off that momentum and play more winning football in 2024. Watson got what was a market-setting deal at the time with 100 percent of his contract being guaranteed. That deal has since been one of the worst in all of football as Watson has been underwhelming at best as the Browns quarterback. Tua has made the playoffs multiple times since the additions of receiver Tyreek Hill and coach Mike McDaniel but has struggled in the cold weather playoff games. Geno had a resurging 2022 that revived his career. He then got paid like a good quarterback and has since been playing like a good quarterback. The offensive room around him is good enough to win a handful of games, but the defensive side of the ball needs to show improvement for them to be true contenders. Derek Carr was traded to the Saints and then got extended for five years. He wasn’t exactly promising in the 2023 season, but with more consistent pieces around him, he has a chance to rebound in 2024. Russell Wilson is an odd anomaly. He isn’t being paid like the other players in this tier, but he is in the same realm of production. He was underperforming relative to his price tag in Denver and now has a chance to have some success in Pittsburgh. If he plays well, he might earn a Baker Mayfield-level extension for a few more years as he gets older. 

Tier 8: Rookies

QBs: Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix, JJ McCarthy, Bo Nix

Each of these first-year signal callers have different skill sets that can fit into one specific or multiple tiers on this list. You can throw Williams in tier three because he is walking into the best situation a rookie QB has ever walked into when being drafted first overall. Daniels has a game-breaking rushing ability, but will have to prove himself throwing the ball. Maye had some good college success, but it wasn’t in a strong conference. Most of the football community will agree that Penix was a reach at the eighth pick and will most likely sit a couple years behind Kirk. McCarthy hasn’t won the starting job over Darnold yet, but can still make an impact his rookie year with his supporting cast. Nix was apparently Sean Payton’s “guy”and earned first-team reps during OTAs the last few weeks. It’s hard to place these guys anywhere because they haven’t played a single snap of NFL football yet. 

Tier 9: Too Soon to Judge

QBs: Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, Aidan O’Connell

While they are entering year two, these guys showed promise in year one despite fighting some adversity at some level. Young had one of the worst situations in the league and earned the worst record in the NFL. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they did not have a first round pick to show for the waste of a season. Anthony Richardson was fun in his first four games, but then suffered an injury that sidelined him for the year. Will Levis came in mid-season and played some solid ball. He showed off a good arm and built some chemistry with Deandre Hopkins which should carry over into 2024. O’Connell had to take on a coaching change halfway through his season and brought some exciting moments to an otherwise average season for the Raiders. He will be competing for the starting job with Gardner Minshew next season. 

Tier 10: Backups or Soon to be Backups

QBs: Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brisset, Gardner Minshew, Kenny Pickett

There isn’t much to say about these guys. They are backups for a reason, but can win a couple games if their number is called at some point during the season due to an injury to the starter. You shouldn’t expect much from any of these guys in a majority of the games they play in.